French PM faces ‘moment of truth’ on Tuesday as ouster looms

PARIS — French Prime Minister François Bayrou plans to present the main elements of a budget for 2026 on Tuesday comprising spending cuts and tax hikes so unpopular they could spell the end of his minority government.

Bayrou is trying to trim the budget by at least €40 billion to bring down the country's eye-watering €3.3 trillion in public debt and rein in a budget deficit that has fallen afoul of European rules in recent years.

“We will not allow the deficit to accumulate,” Bayrou said in a primetime television interview Thursday. "For the first time in a very long time ... the government is going to say what the constraints are, what efforts are needed, and what decisions must be taken to get us out of this deadly trap."

The budget Bayrou will present is expected to achieve those savings mostly through spending reductions. Though the exact proposals have not been shared publicly, they are almost certain to draw the ire of opposition lawmakers across the political spectrum.

Bayrou was able to pass a budget for 2025 earlier this year that contained €53 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes, but only after promising to launch retirement reform talks that temporarily appeased the center-left Socialist Party.

Those negotiations collapsed last month, precipitating a major rift between Bayrou and the Socialists. The prime minister can now no longer count on the center left to abstain from voting on a no-confidence motion in a show of tacit support.

Though the far-right National Rally has held off on joining recent efforts to topple the government, it has made clear it is ready to do so when Bayrou presents his fleshed-out budget in the fall.

"This budget will be a moment of truth,” said a French minister who was granted anonymity to freely discuss negotiations. “Finding €40 billion in savings is difficult, of course. It's like climbing the Himalayas from the north face in winter and wearing shorts. But this effort is indispensable.”

Budget freeze

Bayrou is stuck in an unenviable position between lawmakers staunchly opposed to unpopular budget cuts and investors who want to see France get its finances in shape. Paris is set to dole out €67 billion on interest payments this year — more than it will spend on defense.

Though France's credit rating has not been downgraded this year, the yield on the country's 10-year bond has crept well over 3 percent in 2025 and in recent days has been higher than that of Cyprus, Portugal and Spain — meaning financial markets view Europe's second-biggest economy as a risker investment than those other countries.

Bayrou has promised to bring France's budget deficit down from 5.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2024 to 5.4 percent this year as part of the government's plan to ratchet the figure down to 3 percent of GDP, as required by European Union rules, by 2029.

Economy and Finance Minister Eric Lombard and Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin have already sent proposals to Bayrou, which include several options to achieve the €40 billion in savings. The duo has proposed to reduce the scope of some existing tax breaks and to freeze the value of certain benefits paid out by the government that are typically adjusted for inflation.

But without a majority in the National Assembly, Bayrou will likely be forced to pass his spending plans using a constitutional back door that allows him to pass legislation without a vote but, in turn, gives lawmakers the power to put forward motions of no confidence.

Bayrou's predecessor Michel Barnier was ousted last year when trying to use the tool to pass a budget of his own.

The hard-left France Unbowed, which has repeatedly tried to topple Bayrou's government, said it will once again try to do so if it puts forward what one of its lawmakers called "an austerity policy."

“It is absolutely not the budget that we need,” the lawmaker, Éric Coquerel, told POLITICO.

Coquerel, who is the president of the National Assembly’s finance committee, said France should be looking at investments rather than spending cuts amid the trade war with the United States. He said he hopes that with municipal elections coming up in 2026 and then both legislative and presidential elections set for 2027, the Socialists will decide it is politically expedient for them to oust Bayrou.

"If the Socialist Party saves Macronism, I think they'll have an absolutely terrible electoral backlash,” Coquerel said.

Nicolas Barré contributed to this report.